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England v Pakistan 1st Test Preview
 
1pt Back the match to end on Day 4 Morning @ 12.0 (Betfair)
1pt Back the match to end on Day 4 Afternoon @ 10.0 (Betfair)
 
As argued in yesterday’s series preview http://www.alloutcricket.co.uk/?p=286, draws are unlikely to be in abundance over the next few weeks, given the nature of Pakistan’s side. While containing three pace bowlers well capable of skittling a side out in a couple of sessions, their tail offers virtually no resistance. Even after weather interruptions, neither recent match against Australia ever looked like making the fifth day. Nor do the Trent Bridge stats offer any good news for draw backers, with the last six Tests here all producing results.
 
Nevertheless, laying the draw at 4.5 will only appeal to big-hitters, so my preference is for those bets on the series correct-score. For this specific match, I prefer several speciality markets. Firstly, www.betfair.com offer a market called ‘Test Match End’, which means naming the session in which the match finishes. Here, I like a combination of ‘Day 4 Morning’ and ‘Day 4 Afternoon’ at 12.0 and 10.0 respectively. This bet would have won in both matches against the Aussies. 
 
5pts Pakistan to score under 300 runs in the 1st innings @ 2.08 (Cricketbetlive, Betfair)

Trent Bridge has become something of a paradise for swing bowlers in recent years, in particular reverse swing, and with plenty of cloud cover forecast, there must be every chance of a low first innings total. Indeed, four of the last six first innings in Trent Bridge Tests saw scores below 250. Pakistan failed to make 300 in any of their innings against a wayward, one-dimensional Aussie attack, and must be backed at above evens to fail to reach that target again. 

0.5pt Umar Gul to be Man of the Match @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, Bluesq)
Buy Umar Gul Player Performance 0.25pt @ 82 (Sportingindex) (1pt per run, 10pts per catch, 20pts per wicket)
 
There are few better exponents of reverse swing than Umar Gul, who could step up to the plate after being upstaged by Aamer and Asif at Headingley. 20/1 about Gul winning the man of the match award is worth a small interest, but the main strategy is to buy his ‘Player Performance’ at 82 with www.sportingindex.com . This market awards 20 points per wicket, 10 per catch and 1 per run. Even if he manages an unambitious 22 in terms of runs or catches, we’d be buying at 3 wickets. The risk appears small given his wider average of 3.5, including on pitches far less suitable.

England v Pakistan Series Preview
 
After watching their great rivals struggle against an inexperienced, largely written-off Pakistan, the English mood most be buoyant ahead of this winter’s Ashes defence. Even despite beating the mighty Australians at Twenty20 and drawing one-all in the Tests, bookmakers are still rather dismissive of the visitors’ chances, making England a prohibitive 1.57 chance to win this four-match series, which begins on Thursday at Trent Bridge.
 
Given home advantage and recent results in all forms of the game, they are probably right to do so, but I doubt anyone in the English camp will be complacent. As Australia found out when dismissed for just 88 last week, in the right conditions this Pakistan bowling attack is genuinely world-class.
 
Their problem is a pitifully weak tail, and I suspect that will ultimately be the difference between the two sides. Of Pakistan’s last four batsmen, only Mohammed Aamer averages double figures on 14, whereas English trio Graeme Swann, Stuart Broad and James Anderson average 30, 25 and 15 respectively.
 
Series Correct Score

1.5pt England to win 3-1 @ 10.0 (Bet365, Ladbrokes)
1pt England to win 4-0 @ 13.0 (Betfred, Coral, Stan James) 
1pt Drawn series 2-2 @ 15.0 (General)
 
Nobody is going to get rich backing England to win the series at odds-on, and such a bet would hardly be without risk. Instead, much better value lies in backing correct scores. As argued ahead of last week’s Headingley Test, it is hard to envisage Pakistan drawing many games because they simply don’t bat for long enough. I suspect it would require significant amounts of time lost to weather, and while that is always a threat in England, there remains every chance of four results. My recommendation therefore is to back three scorelines; four-nil and three-one to England, plus the two-all draw; at what equates to combined odds of around 4.1.
 
Sell Series Ton-ups 0.25pts @ 280.0
 
With bowlers strongly fancied to have the ascendancy over the coming weeks, there looks little risk in selling the series ton-ups at 280. This is a spread bet based around the total runs over and above 100 in any individual batsman’s innings. So for example, if Andrew Strauss makes 120, 20 is added to the series total.
 
1pt Umar Akmal to be top Pakistan series batsman  @ 5.5 (Skybet, Stan James, Hills)

Young Akmal failed to deliver during the Test series against Australia, but is worth persevering with given his outstanding potential. I firmly believe he will be one of the world’s leading batsmen over the next decade. In just eight matches, often in tough batting conditions, he has accumulated an average of 39.62, which is comfortably ahead of the rest of his colleagues.

Sri Lanka v India 2nd Test Preview
 
After the party, its time for Sri Lankan cricket to face the future and prove they are much more than a one-man band. When Muttiah Muralitharan was taking the first of those 800 wickets back in 1992, they were a second division cricketing nation. Nowadays, they’re respected enough to start as favourites for a series against the top-ranked nation.
 
I have little doubt they are up to the challenge. There’s certainly no shortage of firepower in the batting department, and while he may not be Murali, Ajantha Mendis has already shown himself to be a world-class performer in all formats of the game. For this second Test, however, they are further hampered by the loss of Lasith Malinga.
 
Lay the Draw 4pts @ 1.64 (Betfair)
 
The combination of two weakened bowling attacks, plus a weather forecast predicting scattered thunderstorms throughout, has forced the draw price into odds-on already. However, as we saw at Headingley last week, this assumption that bad weather inevitably means a draw is highly dubious. In reality, overcast conditions aid the bowlers, and with the Colombo pitch reported to be green and bouncy, the chances of a result look much likelier than the odds suggest. After all, only three of the last seventeen Tests on this ground have produced draws.
 
2pts Ajantha Mendis to be top Sri Lankan bowler @ 4.5 (Bluesq)
 
15 out of the 20 Indian wickets in Galle fell to either Murali or Malinga; a statistic that doesn’t read too well for the back-up bowlers. There will be immense pressure on Mendis in this game, leading the attack and inevitably facing comparisons with Murali, but he still looks a solid bet to top his side’s first innings haul. Mendis’ record of 44 wickets from 10 Tests is a class apart from his colleagues.
 
1pt Mahela Jayawardene to be top Sri Lankan batsman @ 4.5 (Bet365)
 
Jayawardene batted well enough in Galle with 48, even if outshone by a pair of centurions higher up the order. This return to his favourite ground, where he averages a superb 79.58, could see it his turn to claim the glory.
 
1pt Sachin Tendulkar to be top Indian batsman @ 4.5 (General)
 
Given that they had very few practice opportunities beforehand, it might pay to ignore India’s poor first innings batting display in Galle. By the second knock, Tendulkar had found his touch, top-scoring with 84. Sachin is the most important Indian wicket at any time; even more so when several of his colleagues’ form remains uncertain.