England v Pakistan Series Preview
After watching their great rivals struggle against an inexperienced, largely written-off Pakistan, the English mood most be buoyant ahead of this winter’s Ashes defence. Even despite beating the mighty Australians at Twenty20 and drawing one-all in the Tests, bookmakers are still rather dismissive of the visitors’ chances, making England a prohibitive 1.57 chance to win this four-match series, which begins on Thursday at Trent Bridge.
Given home advantage and recent results in all forms of the game, they are probably right to do so, but I doubt anyone in the English camp will be complacent. As Australia found out when dismissed for just 88 last week, in the right conditions this Pakistan bowling attack is genuinely world-class.
Their problem is a pitifully weak tail, and I suspect that will ultimately be the difference between the two sides. Of Pakistan’s last four batsmen, only Mohammed Aamer averages double figures on 14, whereas English trio Graeme Swann, Stuart Broad and James Anderson average 30, 25 and 15 respectively.
Series Correct Score
1.5pt England to win 3-1 @ 10.0 (Bet365, Ladbrokes)
1pt England to win 4-0 @ 13.0 (Betfred, Coral, Stan James)
1pt Drawn series 2-2 @ 15.0 (General)
Nobody is going to get rich backing England to win the series at odds-on, and such a bet would hardly be without risk. Instead, much better value lies in backing correct scores. As argued ahead of last week’s Headingley Test, it is hard to envisage Pakistan drawing many games because they simply don’t bat for long enough. I suspect it would require significant amounts of time lost to weather, and while that is always a threat in England, there remains every chance of four results. My recommendation therefore is to back three scorelines; four-nil and three-one to England, plus the two-all draw; at what equates to combined odds of around 4.1.
Sell Series Ton-ups 0.25pts @ 280.0
With bowlers strongly fancied to have the ascendancy over the coming weeks, there looks little risk in selling the series ton-ups at 280. This is a spread bet based around the total runs over and above 100 in any individual batsman’s innings. So for example, if Andrew Strauss makes 120, 20 is added to the series total.
1pt Umar Akmal to be top Pakistan series batsman @ 5.5 (Skybet, Stan James, Hills)
Young Akmal failed to deliver during the Test series against Australia, but is worth persevering with given his outstanding potential. I firmly believe he will be one of the world’s leading batsmen over the next decade. In just eight matches, often in tough batting conditions, he has accumulated an average of 39.62, which is comfortably ahead of the rest of his colleagues.
