England v Pakistan 1st Test Preview
1pt Back the match to end on Day 4 Morning @ 12.0 (Betfair)
1pt Back the match to end on Day 4 Afternoon @ 10.0 (Betfair)
As argued in yesterday’s series preview http://www.alloutcricket.co.uk/?p=286, draws are unlikely to be in abundance over the next few weeks, given the nature of Pakistan’s side. While containing three pace bowlers well capable of skittling a side out in a couple of sessions, their tail offers virtually no resistance. Even after weather interruptions, neither recent match against Australia ever looked like making the fifth day. Nor do the Trent Bridge stats offer any good news for draw backers, with the last six Tests here all producing results.
Nevertheless, laying the draw at 4.5 will only appeal to big-hitters, so my preference is for those bets on the series correct-score. For this specific match, I prefer several speciality markets. Firstly, www.betfair.com offer a market called ‘Test Match End’, which means naming the session in which the match finishes. Here, I like a combination of ‘Day 4 Morning’ and ‘Day 4 Afternoon’ at 12.0 and 10.0 respectively. This bet would have won in both matches against the Aussies.
5pts Pakistan to score under 300 runs in the 1st innings @ 2.08 (Cricketbetlive, Betfair)
Trent Bridge has become something of a paradise for swing bowlers in recent years, in particular reverse swing, and with plenty of cloud cover forecast, there must be every chance of a low first innings total. Indeed, four of the last six first innings in Trent Bridge Tests saw scores below 250. Pakistan failed to make 300 in any of their innings against a wayward, one-dimensional Aussie attack, and must be backed at above evens to fail to reach that target again.
0.5pt Umar Gul to be Man of the Match @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, Bluesq)
Buy Umar Gul Player Performance 0.25pt @ 82 (Sportingindex) (1pt per run, 10pts per catch, 20pts per wicket)
There are few better exponents of reverse swing than Umar Gul, who could step up to the plate after being upstaged by Aamer and Asif at Headingley. 20/1 about Gul winning the man of the match award is worth a small interest, but the main strategy is to buy his ‘Player Performance’ at 82 with www.sportingindex.com . This market awards 20 points per wicket, 10 per catch and 1 per run. Even if he manages an unambitious 22 in terms of runs or catches, we’d be buying at 3 wickets. The risk appears small given his wider average of 3.5, including on pitches far less suitable.
