With Sunday’s thrashing of India, the hosts rose to the occasion in fine style to guarantee their spot in Saturday’s final, making the last group stage match an all-or-nothing encounter. Hopefully, weather won’t present quite the same threat as it did last week when forcing an abandonment, but if it does, New Zealand would progress to the final.
2pts New Zealand to win @ [2.6] (Boylesports, Betfair)
One can’t help but feel that this tour can’t end soon enough for India. When they arrived, there were already complaints about the team’s extremely busy schedule, and concerns on that score has meant Mahendra Singh Dhoni has had to manage without several of his top players. Apart from Virender Sehwag and a couple of the bowlers, this makeshift side has struggled badly. It is hard to reconcile their odds-on status here, given that two of India’s three innings so far have resulted in all-out scores of just 88 and 103. The first of which came against this New Zealand side, who must represent decent value as the clear outsider of two.
1pt Scott Styris to be top New Zealand batsman @ 7.0 (Bet365)
Buy Scott Styris Player Performance 0.25pts @ 47(SportingIndex)(20pts per wicket, 10 per catch, 1 per run)
Previous predictions during this series for Scott Styris to head his country’s run-haul failed to win, but look perfectly justified with hindsight. The core argument behind the bet; that New Zealand’s top-order are inferior and vulnerable, meaning he should get a long innings at number five; stands up. To score 89 and not finish as top scorer, as happened in their opening match, must be considered unlucky.
In addition to persevering with that strategy, Styris rates good value on the player performance spreads. He is also a key bowler, and had already taken two wickets when their last match against Sri Lanka was abandoned. In their two completed matches, Styris accumulated totals of 109 and 44 for the purposes of this bet, making a buy at 47 something of a no-brainer.
Buy Kyle Mills Player Performance 0.25pts @ 38 (SportingIndex)
Almost identical arguments apply to this spread bet on Kyle Mills. His tallies in the completed matches so far were 49 and 101, comfortably higher than this spread estimate of 38. He’s looked the Black Caps’ most dangerous front-line bowler, and is always capable of adding a few runs with the bat.
Amidst rumours that England’s cricketers could be banned from using everyone’s favourite social networking site, we want to know which cricketer – dead or alive – you’d most like to follow on twitter… apart from Beefy, of course.
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Sri Lanka Triseries Match 4: Sri Lanka v New Zealand
Having looked clear favourites to win this triseries after their first match, the hosts suddenly find themselves bottom of the group. Each side has won one match, but both New Zealand and India have secured a bonus point. Were the Black Caps to upset the odds tomorrow, they would be assured of a place in the final. Sri Lanka, on the other hand, would still need to get something out of their last group match.
3pts Sri Lanka to win on the handicap (-3.5 wickets or 25 runs) @ 1.83 (Sportingbet)
We should be wary of reading too much into Sri Lanka’s defeat to India on Monday as a disastrous start made their task nigh-on impossible. Their top order misjudged conditions and should, with hindsight, have been more circumspect. On the positive side, Suraj Randiv and Nuwan Kulasekara batted well to take the score up to 170; showing that the side has strength right down the order. Rather than focus on that performance, I’d prefer to look back to their comprehensive defeat of New Zealand previously, achieved despite losing the toss.
To clarify, the rules of this handicap bet are as follows. Should Sri Lanka bat second, they need to win by 4 wickets; if batting first, they need to win by a 25 run margin.
3pts Sri Lanka to outscore NZ in the first 15 overs @ 1.66 (General)
This bet was recommended in both New Zealand’s matches, winning the second time easily having snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the first. The argument behind it remains solid; that NZ’s opening batsmen are vastly inferior to their rivals. Their early totals in both games were modest by modern standards, barely scoring beyond a run-rate of 4 per over.
1pt Kumar Sangakkara to be top Sri Lankan batsman @ 4.75 (Boylesports)
A failure last time under difficult batting conditions is easily forgiven, and I’m banking on the Sri Lankan skipper leading by example in this crucial match. He was in fine nick during the test series, and hit 48 against NZ in his side’s first triseries match. In any ODI, these odds would be perfectly reasonable about Kumar Sangakkara, who holds the highest 50-over average amongst his side.
Player Performance: (20pts per wicket, 10 per catch, 1 per run) 7pts Kyle Mills Over 34 @ 1.72 (Bet365)
Kyle Mills has looked easily the most dangerous NZ bowler, particularly under lights. So far, his totals for this player performance bet have been 49 and 91, so it isn’t asking much for him to reach Bet365′s target of 35. Crucially in his case, Mills is no mug with the bat and could easily make the 15 runs that would mean he’d only need to take one wicket.
Four years on from one of the lowest points in cricketing history, Pakistan return to The Oval, scene of the infamous ball-tampering row with Darryl Hair, which caused them to forfeit a Test in which they were well ahead. One must assume nothing as dramatic or controversial will occur, but the odds suggest the visitors won’t be leaving in any better spirits this time. Unless Pakistan can bounce back from a couple of disastrous defeats to win this match, England will win the series.
10pts England to win @ 1.65 (Betfair)
I wonder quite what England have to do in order to see their odds shorten. Victories by margins of nine wickets and 354 runs could hardly have been more comprehensive, yet England are bigger odds here than before either of them. The reason for that is a slightly dubious weather forecast, but we had delays at Edgbaston to little effect. None of Pakistan’s four Tests in England this summer have yet to go to the fifth day, or even come close.
In any case, as pointed out before Trent Bridge and Edgbaston, an unsettled forecast can actually make the result more likely, as persistent cloud cover makes life more difficult for batsmen. So far, Pakistan have failed miserably to cope with England’s swing bowling attack in overcast conditions. Moreover, it can hardly help that Zulqarnain Haider, who scored more runs in one innings at Edgbaston than any of his team-mates have managed in four, is ruled out of the series with a broken finger. So is second top-scorer Umar Gul, the tail-ender whose resistance at Trent Bridge prevented an innings defeat.
Test Match End (Betfair)
1pt Match to finish on day 4 afternoon @ 8.2 1pt Match to finish on day 4 evening @ 6.4
With every test ending before the final day, this market has proved a goldmine all summer and should therefore be persevered with. In fairness, The Oval tends to produce a much better batting track than the two previous venues, so they may at least hang on until the afternoon of the fourth day this time.
Buy Steven Finn Bowling Performance 0.25pts @ 42 (SportingIndex) 0.5pt Steven Finn to be Man of the Match @ 21.0 (Ladbrokes)
Jimmy Anderson and Graeme Swann have claimed the two man of the match awards so far in this series, and it could now be the turn of Steven Finn. With it’s tennis ball bounce, The Oval has always offered plenty for tall fast bowlers, so this looks an ideal opportunity for Finn to cement his status as the heir to Steve Harmison in that regard. The points for the spread bet are awarded as follows; 10 per wicket, 25 bonus for five in one innings. With eight wickets in the two matches so far, he will only need to improve very slightly to generate a profit.
2pts Umar Akmal to score a 50 in the first innings @ 3.25 (Ladbrokes)
Umar Akmal has been a massive disappointment in the tests so far, after offering such strong hints of his massive potential during the T20s against Australia. Nevertheless, his form before this tour had been excellent and I reckon we’ll see one decent innings before going home. The Oval tends to produce excellent batting tracks, so this could be the match. 9/4 about him making a 50 in the first innings is a decent price, considering his average in all international formats is well over 30.
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The third of this seven match triseries brings together the two sides initially expected to dominate. However, after India’s 200-run thrashing at the hands of New Zealand in their opener, this becomes a must-win scenario for Mahendra Singh Dhoni’s side.
5pts Sri Lanka to win @ 1.8 (Stan James)
On the basis of their respective opening performances, Sri Lanka deserve to be stronger favourites than these odds imply. In fairness to India, they were badly disadvantaged by losing the toss against New Zealand, and lacked batting practice before that disastrous collapse. Nevertheless, their already weakened side can ill afford to lose more players to injury, which will be the case tomorrow. Yuvraj Singh is already ruled out, while Ashish Nehra and Ishant Sharma are both doubtful. In complete contrast, Sri Lanka are at full strength, and easily overcame losing the toss on Friday.
Player Performances (1 per run, 20 wicket, 10 catch)
Buy Angelo Matthews Performance 0.25pt @ 47 (Sporting Index)
Compared to Bet365′s fixed odds alternative, a spread bet on the ‘Player Performances’ market looks better value. After picking a non-starter, Jacob Oram, in the last match, I’m again opting for an all-rounder. With three wickets and a catch, Angelo Matthews made up 70 points in this market on Friday, despite scoring a duck. Clearly, he has a pivotal role to play in Sri Lanka’s bowling attack, and as a big-hitter, usually contributes something with the bat at the death.
3pts Sri Lanka to hit more than 2.5 sixes @ 1.83 (Ladbrokes)
Given India’s bowling concerns, they could have great trouble constraining the Sri Lankan batsmen, especially if the hosts win the toss and bat first. In their match against New Zealand, only Praveen Kumar and Ashish Nehra presented much of a threat, and the latter is currently an injury doubt. It isn’t asking that much for Sri Lanka to hit three maximums.
1pt Suresh Raina to be top Indian batsman @ [6.5] (Bet365, Bluesq)
While the form of so many of his team-mates is under a cloud, Suresh Raina has at least shown his best on this tour. Already a proven top-class one-day performer averaging 37, Raina made a ton on his test debut at Colombo. Batting at five, perhaps a spot higher due to Yuvraj’s absence, he may well be called upon to rescue the innings.
Betting Stats Running Total: +80pts
Considering the format lends itself to unpredictability, the formbook has stood up pretty well throughout the seven-year history of the T20 Cup. Surrey and Leicestershire both made all of the first four finals days, winning three cups between them. 2007 champions Kent made the last three finals days. If such tournament pedigree is the key factor, then Somerset are the team to beat this year. Of the four semi-finalists, they are the only former champions, winning in 2005. Moreover, they will doubtless be itching to erase the memory of last year’s defeat in the final to Sussex.
2pts Somerset to win T20 Cup @ 3.5 (Extrabet)
Irrespective of those previous performances, I’ve fancied Somerset from the outset, as there is no better balanced line-up for T20 in county cricket. Openers Marcus Trescothick and Craig Kieswetter can win a game on their own. They are ably supported by a solid middle-order, including James Hildreth and huge-hitting Kieron Pollard. On paper, their bowlers look fairly ordinary, but in fact, they have mastered this format better than anyone. The two leading wicket-takers in this year’s competition are Alfonso Thomas and Pollard. Murali Kartik’s spin pairing with Shaun Udal helped Middlesex to the trophy in 2008 at the Rose Bowl, and his economy rate could again prove pivotal on what should be a high-scoring day.
That isn’t to say it will be easy, not least because they have to face Nottinghamshire in the semi. For my money, whoever emerges from it will win the final. Notts’ bowling attack is beyond compare in the county game. Dirk Nannes, Ryan Sidebottom and Darren Pattinson are strong enough on their own, and now they can add England pair Stuart Broad and Graeme Swann.
2pts Hampshire to beat Essex @ [2.1] (Bluesq)
With home advantage, Hants are narrowly preferred in the first semi-final. Granted, they have suffered a big blow this week with Michael Lumb’s broken foot, but in fairness Lumb has contributed very little to their T20 campaign. The likes of Jimmy Adams and Michael Carberry, ably backed up by Abdul Razzaq as a finisher, are quite capable of overcoming the loss.
Moreover, I have doubts about Essex’s bowling attack. David Masters and on-loand Andy Carter could prove expensive on a flat track. Danesh Kaneria certainly has the pedigree, but was plain awful before being dropped from Pakistan’s test side. On the plus side, Dwayne Bravo has been bowling well in the Caribbean T20 tournament.
3pts 8 or more sixes in the Hants v Essex match @ 1.83 (Extrabet)
The Rose Bowl has tended to be something of a batting paradise in recent times, and while the spinners may get some traction as the pitch wears, I expect a run-fest in the opening game. Also, both sides look stronger with bat than ball, so there’s every reason to be confident these two can muster eight maximums between them.
Top Finals Day Bowler 0.5pt ew Murali Karthik @ 17.0 (Skybet) 0.5pt ew Danny Briggs @ 26.0 (Corals)
As argued above, spinners could be the key as the day wears on. Given my preference for Somerset and Hants in the semis, it makes sense to back their principal spinners at these attractive odds. Danny Briggs in particular looks vastly overpriced, given that he is the third highest wicket-taker in this year’s competition.
It would appear, after all, that we have a genuinely competitive three-way contest on our hands in this series, after New Zealand rubbished their outsider status with a 200-run thrashing of India in the opening game. For match two, the Black Caps face Sri Lanka.
3pts Sri Lanka to outscore NZ in first 15 overs @ 1.66 (Boylesports, Bluesq)
Despite the fact that India were skittled out in much less favourable batting conditions under lights, they only came up two runs short in this bet, having looked a stone-cold certainty in-running. While that was a timely reminder of the importance of winning the toss and batting first at Dambulla, it did nothing to debunk the theory that most of New Zealand’s batting strength lies further down their order. In any case, Sri Lanka’s classy top-order should be more reliable as, unlike several of the Indians who lacked batting practice, they have all been busy in the Tests.
1pt Scott Styris to be top NZ batsman @ 7.0 (Bet365, VCbet)
It was very much a case of close, but no cigar, so far as this bet was concerned on Tuesday. More often than not, 89 would be enough to top-score in a New Zealand one-day innings, but unfortunately Ross Taylor pipped Scott Styris with 95. Nevertheless, that performance illustrated just how superior this pair are to the rest of the NZ top-order, so this good value bet is worth perservering with.
10pts Jacob Oram to score over 33 points @ 1.73 (Bet365 Player Performances) (1 per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wicket)
Given his pivotal all-round role in the NZ side, Jacob Oram appears to have been under-estimated in Bet365′s player performance market; the scoring for which is detailed above. Coming in at six, he seems almost certain to get a bat, either in a recovery role or as a boundary-hitting finisher late in the innings. Oram’s tally from the first match was 64, thanks largely to taking two wickets. Just the one would probably suffice here.
2pts Lasith Malinga to take most wickets @ 4.5 (vs Kulasekara, Mendis, Mills, Tuffey, McKay) (Stan James)
Stan James have mixed each side’s leading three bowlers here in a group of six, with the favourite an obvious pick at reasonable odds. Not only is Lasith Malinga by far the best of these on the world stage, especially in limited overs, but is always scheduled to bowl at the end of the innings, when wickets are most likely to fall. He’s never a straightforward bowler to face, and if Sri Lanka win the toss and get to bowl under lights, he could be virtually unplayable.
With Umar Gul crocked for the next Test and Pakistan in need of a shake-up, surely it’s time to seek out this gentleman…
If he’s good enough for Wasim Akram who like giants and wanted him in the squad, then he’s good enough for us. Physical freaks: they’re what sport was made for.
